[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M4/1N 05/2224UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 164/118

GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Aug             08 Aug             09 Aug
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            175/129

COMMENT: M class flares possible from solar regions of 9563, 
9566 and 9557. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was southward 
between 09-15UT. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 06 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   2334 5322
      Darwin              17   3334 4322
      Townsville          10   1223 4221
      Learmonth           23   3335 5323
      Canberra            22   2335 5322
      Hobart              22   2335 5322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 AUG : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Canberra            35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              50   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             22                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             23   2145 5433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
08 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
09 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Field was unexpectedly active on 06 Aug during local 
night hours, in association with southward IMF. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Aug   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15-30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 109

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Aug   120    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values. 
08 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Northern Australian region MUFs enhanced by 15-30% after 
local dawn this morning. Mildly degraded conditions observed 
for southern region AUs/NZ during lcoal night hours. 

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