[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug: 120/72

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+04 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             125/78             130/84

COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 500km/sec during 
second half of UT day. Bz, the north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained north-ward for most 
of the UT day. Two solar filaments disappeared from the solar disk 
between 30 and 31 July. These filaments were located on the central 
meridan of the solar disk between 20 and 40 degrees south in latitude. 
Whilst the central longitude location implies geoeffectiveness, 
the latitude location may possibly reduce effects. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
01/1205UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2224 2322
      Darwin               9   3223 2223
      Townsville           9   13-- ----
      Learmonth           30   ---5 -43-
      Canberra             8   2213 2322
      Hobart               8   2123 2322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 AUG : 
      Darwin              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            91   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              87   (Minor storm)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             23   3443 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug    12    Unsettled 
03 Aug    16    active 
04 Aug    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Coronal hole high speed stream effects were minimal 
due to Bz remaining northward. Active conditions expected on 
03 Aug due to solar filaments. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed during local 
night hours at high latitudes. Mild degradation expected 03 Aug. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Aug    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed 15% to Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 20% to near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August: 111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug   110    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Aug   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
04 Aug    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 1 August 
and is current for interval 1-2 August. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
observed southern region Aus/NZ. Mild degradation expected 03-04 Aug. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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