[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 29 09:44:35 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 188/141
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 185/138 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Region 9433 has the possibility of producing a proton
flare over the next couple of days.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0431UT on 28 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 26 1534 5433
Darwin 24 1533 5434
Townsville 26 1534 5433
Learmonth 30 1534 6433
Canberra 24 0533 5433
Hobart 27 1544 5433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 APR :
Darwin 19 (Quiet)
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2102 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 20 Unsettled to active with the chance of minor
storm periods.
30 Apr 15 Unsettled
01 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 27 April and
is current for interval 28-29 April. A strong shock was observed
in the solar wind at 0431UT on 28 April which produced a sudden
impulse in the geomagnetic field at 0501UT of 60-100nT across
the Australian region. Geomagnetic activity only reached minor
storm levels following the SI due to the lack of strong southward
IMF.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : Began at 0440UT 28/04, Ended at 0520UT 28/04
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were not as significant as expected
as geomagnetic activity did not reach anticipated levels following
the impact of the CME at 0501UT on 28 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 20%.
Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to enhanced 15%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 120 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
30 Apr 130 near predicted monthly values
01 May 135 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 27 April
and is current for interval 27-29 April (SWFs) . Degraded HF
conditions were not as significant as expected as geomagnetic
activity did not reach anticipated levels following the impact
of the CME at 0501UT on 28 April.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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