[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:**RED**   ION:**RED**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M7/2B    1312UT  probable   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 196/148

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            210/161            210/161



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   1232 1122
      Darwin                5   1222 1122
      Townsville            4   1221 1122
      Learmonth             7   2232 1222
      Canberra              6   1232 0122
      Hobart                5   1232 0012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 APR : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1112 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Apr    30    Initially quiet to unsettled, with minor to major 
                storm levels possible in the latter half of the 
                UT day. 
29 Apr    50    Minor to major storm levels. 
COMMENT: A CME associated with the M7 flare observed at 1314UT 
on 26 April is expected to impact the Earth in the latter half 
of the UT day on 28 April. Minor to major storm levels are expected 
to follow. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
29 Apr      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Poor          
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected following the impact 
of a CME anticipated to arrive late in the UT day of 28 April. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Apr   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr   130    near predicted monthly values 
28 Apr   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                30% 
29 Apr    70    15 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected following the impact 
of a CME anticipated to arrive late in the UT day of 28 April. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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