[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 25 09:29:55 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/1N 0542UT confirmed lower East Asia/ Australia
M3/1N 0700UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1/1N 1253UT possible lower European
M2/1N 1812UT probable lower East Pacific
M2/-- 2224UT confirmed lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 194/146
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 200/152 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Region 9433 is prime for a major flare. Stay tuned.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 2232 1113
Darwin 6 2232 1113
Townsville 7 22-- ----
Learmonth 7 2232 2122
Canberra 3 1221 1012
Hobart 4 1231 1013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 APR :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 21 4454 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
26 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
27 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 20 April and
is current for interval 23-25 April. See solar comment.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: See solar comment.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 117
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 120
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 120 near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 120 near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 120 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: See solar comment.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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