[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 194/146

GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Oct             01 Nov             02 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   198/150            205/156            205/156


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   3223 2313
      Darwin               11   3223 3---
      Townsville            8   3223 2214
      Learmonth            10   3223 2323
      Canberra              9   3223 2313
      Hobart                9   3223 2313
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 OCT : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             26   5544 4332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Oct    20    active 
01 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
02 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for interval 31 October to 1 November. Chances 
of active conditions for the 31 OCT following the anticipated 
arrival of a shock associated with an M4.4 flare and dissappearing 
filament observed at around 0130UT on the 29 OCT. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions are expected for the 31 OCT to 
1 NOV following the anticipated arrival of a shock on the 31 
OCT. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Oct   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Oct   130    5 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
01 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Nov   145    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for interval 31 October to 1 November. Further 
depressed conditions are expected for the 31 OCT to 1 NOV following 
the arrival of an anticipated shock on the 31 OCT. 


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