[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 154/109

GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Nov             18 Nov             19 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            160/114

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        1   1110 0013
      Darwin                2   1110 1013
      Townsville            3   1111 1023
      Learmonth             1   2100 0012
      Canberra              1   1110 0013
      Hobart                2   1110 0022
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 NOV : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              8   (Quiet)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1121 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Nov     6    Quiet 
18 Nov     6    Quiet 
19 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A classic halo CME was observed early in the UT day 
on the 16th. With current available data it appears to be a farside 
event. NOTICE: From Nov 18/2100UT to 19/1300UT (Nov 19/0800LT 
to 19/2400LT) realtime services provided by IPS Radio and Space 
Services will be disrupted. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Nov   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Nov   140    Near predicted monthly values 
NOTICE: From Nov 18/2100UT to 19/1300UT (Nov 19/0800LT 
to 19/2400LT) realtime services provided by IPS Radio and Space 
Services will be disrupted. 


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