[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z NOVEMBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 196/148

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   200/152            200/152            195/147

COMMENT: Solar regions in the north east quadrant of the solar 
disk continue to develop and flare potential is improving. A 
series of coronal mass ejections has recently been observed. 
The first occured around 1742UT on 01 Nov (south east limb), 
the second around 0018 on 02 Nov (north north west limb), and 
the third around 1942UT, on (north west limnb). Apparent limb 
proximity of events makes geoeffective assessment difficult. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region        2   2100 1112
      Darwin                3   2100 1122
      Townsville            2   2100 1112
      Learmonth             2   2100 1112
      Canberra              3   2200 2102
      Hobart                2   2100 2010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 NOV : 
      Darwin               12   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2221 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Nov    16    Unsettled to Active 
05 Nov    20    Active, with the chance of minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: Increased activity expected on days 2 and 3 of forecast 
due to recent coronal mass ejection events. Shock arrival window 
estimate is from around 10UT on 04 Nov to 15UT on 05 Nov. Shock(s) 
are expected to be weak. Recurrence also suggests very mild increase 
in geomagnetic activity 06 Nov. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Nov      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: High latitude HF communication should be normal for 
today becoming degraded on days 2 and 3 due to recent coronal 
mass ejection activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Nov   175

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20 to 30% 4UT to 14UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for November: 133

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov   160    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 Nov   160    near predicted monthly values 
05 Nov   120    10 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for today. Short wave fadeout 
probability increasing due to developing solar regions. Mildly 
disturbed conditions are expected for 4-5 Nov due to recent solar 
mass ejections. Effects should be confined to southern Aus/NZ 
region. 


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