[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 00

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 193/145

GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Nov             02 Nov             03 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            185/138

COMMENT: Proton fluxes are currently above background levels. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 31 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   1123 2433
      Darwin               13   2122 2533
      Townsville           11   1133 2423
      Learmonth            15   2223 2533
      Canberra             11   1223 2433
      Hobart               10   1133 2332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 OCT : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   5324 1321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Nov    14    Unsettled to Active 
02 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for interval 31 October to 1 November. Unsettled 
to active conditions were observed on the 31 OCT prior and after 
the arrival of a weak shock associated with an M4.4 flare and 
dissappearing filament observed after 0130UT on the 29 OCT. A 
sudden impulse of 60 nT was detected at Learmonth at 1714UT. 
Disturbed conditions are likely to prevail over 1 NOV with current 
above average solar wind speed and IMF Bz negative. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : Proton event in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions are still possible for 1 NOV following 
the arrival of a weak shock on the 31 OCT at 1714UT. PCA in progress, 
30-MHZ riometer absorption of 0.6 dB measured at Casey at 2212UT 
(dawn) on the 31 OCT. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
31 Oct   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 5 to 10% after local dawn,
      Mostly near predicted monthly values during loval night,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October: 135

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Nov   140    about 5% below predicted monthly values 
02 Nov   145    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Nov   150    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 73 was issued on 29 October 
and is current for interval 31 October to 1 November. Mildly 
depressed conditions are expected for 1 NOV following the arrival 
of an anticipated shock on the 31 OCT with a sudden impulse of 
60 nT at Learmonth detected at 1714UT. 


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