[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 09 May 24 issued 2332 UT on 09 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

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SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (09 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
09 May   111    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.0    0317UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M4.5    0332UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  X2.2    0913UT  probable   all    Mid East/Indian
  X1.1    1744UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M1.0    2121UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M2.7    2241UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      125
May      114
Jun      116


2. FORECAST (10 MAY - 12 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
10 May    70    Poor             20 to 30% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
11 May    50    Fair-poor        30 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values    
12 May    90    Normal-fair      Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 49 was issued 
on 9 May and is current for 10-12 May. ASWFC SWF HF Communications 
Warning 50 was issued on 9 May and is current for 10-12 May. 
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 09-May were near 
predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected to be depressed by 
20-40% over 10-12 May due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. 
Frequent shortwave fadeouts are expected.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au