[Ips-dhfpr] ASWFC Daily HF Prop Report - 02 May 24 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (02 MAY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
02 May   108    Normal-fair    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.8 01/2231UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0    0217UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.7    2057UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      125
May      114
Jun      116


2. FORECAST (03 MAY - 05 MAY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
03 May    70    Fair             Depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values
04 May   120    Fair-normal      Near predicted monthly values    
05 May   120    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 2 May 
and is current for 3 May only. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
on UT day 02-May were mostly near predicted monthly values in 
the Australian region during the local day. Degraded conditions 
were observed during local night hours due to the onset of geomagnetic 
activity, with strong spread F observed at Hobart. Spread F was 
observed at Canberra and Perth. After local dawn this morning 
southern Australian regional MUFs were depressed 20-30%. Northern 
Australian regional MUFs are mostly near normal. Depressed and 
degraded HF conditions are now expected for the southern Australian 
region for 03-May. Isolated minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
Ionospheric scintillation was observed 02/0833-1413UT at Darwin and Niue.

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For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au