[Ips-dhfpr] SWS Daily HF Prop Report - 29 September 16 issued 2330 UT on 29 Sep 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 SEPTEMBER 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (29 SEPTEMBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
29 Sep     6    Fair           

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% throughout the day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      29
Sep      35
Oct      34


2. FORECAST (30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
30 Sep     0    Fair-poor        15 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values
01 Oct     5    Fair             Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
02 Oct    10    Normal-fair      Depressed 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values   

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 29 September 
and is current for 29 Sep to 1 Oct. Observed MUF's were strongly 
depressed over most Australian regions throughout the UT day 
29 September except on the day side for the equatorial Australian 
regions. These depression are associated with the observed disturbed 
geomagnetic conditions driven by a very large positive polarity 
coronal hole. Similar MUF depressions are expected for the next 
three days (30 September to 2 October) as active conditions associated 
with the coronal hole are expected to persist for few days.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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