[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 17 February 16 issued 2353 UT on 17 Feb 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

SUBJ: SWS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 FEBRUARY 2016 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (17 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
17 Feb    36    Normal         

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      60
Feb      50
Mar      51


2. FORECAST (18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
18 Feb    40    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 30%
19 Feb    45    Normal           Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 10 to 30%    
20 Feb    50    Normal           Near predicted monthly values   

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 17 February 
and is current for 17-18 Feb. Variable ionospheric support observed 
over the last 24 hours with depressed MUF's observed for Southern 
AUS/NZ regions, enhanced MUF's for some Northern AUS and Equatorial 
regions and disturbed conditions for some Antarctic stations. 
Continued elevated geomagnetic activity expected for 18Feb should 
see MUF depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and possibly 
for Northern AUS regions. Continued disturbed ionospheric conditions 
for Antarctic regions and possible enhanced periods during local 
day for low-latitude/equatorial regions. Ionospheric support 
expected to slowly return to near predicted monthly values by 
20Feb.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at ips.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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