[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 13 February 14 issued 2330 UT on 13 Feb 2014

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 FEBRUARY 2014 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (13 FEBRUARY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
13 Feb   123    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0140UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

PCA Event : No event.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      119
Feb      75
Mar      75


2. FORECAST (14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
14 Feb   130    Normal           Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values
15 Feb   130    Fair-poor        Near to 15% above predicted 
                                 monthly values    
16 Feb    90    Normal-fair      Near predicted monthly values/depressed 
                                 20 to 30%   

COMMENT: IPS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 12 
February and is current for 13-14 Feb. IPS Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 8 was issued on 13 February and is current for 15-17 
Feb. The ionosphere in the Australian region was mostly normal 
to enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUFs were generally above 
predicted monthly values at most locations. MUFs are expected 
to continue to be enhanced next two days. An expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity may result in some MUF depressions to 
30% on 16-Feb, particularly at S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic locations. 
Further short-wave fadeouts are likely over the next 2 days.

----------------------------------------------------------
For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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