[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 24 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (24 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
24 Oct    79    Normal-poor    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M7.6    0255UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M4.2    0510UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    1858UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M1.0    2140UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values 00-06UT.
      Depressed 15-20% later in UT day, spread F
      and absorption observed.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
25 Oct    55    Fair             near predicted monthly values(north Aus)
25 Oct    25    Poor-Fair        20 to 40% below predicted monthly 
                                 values / near predicted normal(south Aus/NZ)
26 Oct    35    Normal-poor      10 to 20% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
27 Oct    45    Fair             depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 74 was issued on 22 October 
and is current for interval 24-25 October. Depressed MUFs expected 
for first half of UT day today then recovering. Depression followed 
geomagnetic activity associated with mass ejection impact. Another 
mass ejection is expected on 26 Oct. Depressed conditions
are forecast for 26 Oct, if mass ejection arrives. 
Frequent flares and shortwave fadeouts are expected today. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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