[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 20 October 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (20 OCTOBER) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
20 Oct    56    Fair-normal    

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0725UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


PCA Event : No event.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  55
2. FORECAST (21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
21 Oct    45    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values 
22 Oct    40    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values     
23 Oct    40    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 70 was issued on 19 October 
and is current for interval 20-22 October (SWFs) . Lower than 
normal MUFs are likely for southern Aus/NZ region next few days, 
in association with coronal hole wind stream induced activity. 
There is an increasing chance for short wave fadeouts due to 
magnetically complex solar region in north-east solar quadrant. 
Northern Aus region MUFs expected to be near normal and communicators 
within this region should use a T of 60. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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