[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 19 July 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JULY 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (19 JULY) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
19 Jul    88    Normal-fair    

Flares: none.

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 19 07 2002 1145UT and is in progress

Predicted Monthly T index for July: 108
2. FORECAST (20 JULY - 22 JULY)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
20 Jul    90    Fair             Depressed 10-20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values. 
21 Jul   100    Normal-Fair      about 10% below predicted monthly 
                                 values     
22 Jul   110    Normal           near predicted monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 19 July 
and is current for interval 20-21 July. Depressed MUFs expected 
after local dawn, and degarded local night conditions expected 
for southern Aus/NZ region due to anticpated increase in geomagnetic 
activity from recent mass ejection events. Muf depression response 
to activity expected due to seasonal factors (winter). 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060