[Ips-dhfpr] IPS Daily HF Prop Report - 16 August 02

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY HF PROPAGATION REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z AUGUST 2002 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
AUSTRALIAN REGION SUMMARY AND FORECAST

1. SUMMARY (16 AUGUST) 
Date   T index  Conditions    
16 Aug   141    Normal         

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0 15/2333UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.6    0612UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M5.3    1235UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.3    2212UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

MUFs:
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
      Some absorption observed late in UT day.


PCA Event : No event. However, proton enhancement in progress.

Predicted Monthly T index for August: 102
2. FORECAST (17 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST)
Date   T index  Conditions       MUFs                              
17 Aug   120    Normal           about 5% above predicted monthly 
                                 values 
18 Aug   100    Poor             Initially enhanced 5%, then 
                                 depressed 15-20%.     
19 Aug    85    Normal-Fair      depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted 
                                 monthly values    
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 15 August 
and is current for interval 16-18 August (SWFs) . Strongly degraded 
conditions expected local night hours 18 Aug, southern Aus/NZ 
region. MUF depression for southern hemisphere not expected to 
be severe due to seasonal factors (winter). Fadeouts can be expected 
on daylight HF circuits. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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