IPS Daily Report - 14 July 00

[anonymous]

Regional Warning Centre schrieb:

> SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
> ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 2000 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
> FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
> SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY
> STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** RED **
> NOTE: MAJOR DISTURBANCE EXPECTED DUE TO X5 SOLAR FLARE.
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
> Activity 14 Jul:  High
>
> Flares    Max     Fadeout    Begin   End    Freq.  Sectors
>  X5/3B    1024UT  probable                  all    European
>  M3/1N    1344UT  possible                  lower  European
>
> Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 204/155
>
> GOES satellite data for 13 Jul
>        Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+07
>        Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+05
>        Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
>        X-ray background: C3.6
> Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
>
> 1B. SOLAR FORECAST
>              15 Jul             16 Jul             17 Jul
> Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
> Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
> 10.7cm/SSN   200/152            195/147            195/147
>
> COMMENT: A major solar event has been observed. Region 9077 located
> just west of the centre of the solar disk produced an X5 event.
> The X5 event produced the second ground level cosmic ray event
> for this cycle. GLE events are associated with solar protons
> from the flare, and indicate that very intense and energetic
> particle fluxes have been released from the flare. In addition a halo
> coronal mass ejection was observed with the flare. This region
> is in an ideal geoeffective location, and remains very flare
> capable. Further flare activity likely.
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
> Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
>
> Estimated Indices 14 Jul :  A   K
>    Australian Region       23   2333 3553
>       Townsville           17   2333 3444
>       Learmonth            23   2333 3553
>       Canberra             20   2333 3543
>       Hobart               20   2333 3453
>
> Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 JUL :
>       Townsville            8   (Quiet)
>       Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
>       Canberra             71   (Active)
>       Hobart               90   (Minor storm)
>
> Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A
>            Fredericksburg        25
>            Planetary             36
>
> Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul :  A   K
>            Fredericksburg        18
>            Planetary             33   2235 7523
> 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
> Date      Ap    Conditions
> 15 Jul    35    Initially unsettled, then storm levels late in UT day.
> 16 Jul   150    Major to Severe storm levels
> 17 Jul    45    Active
> COMMENT: A sudden impulse is expected in the geomagnetic field
> late on 15 July to ealry on 16 July. Major to severe storm conditions
> are expected on 16 July following impulse.
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
>                     Latitude Band
> Date        Low            Middle         High
> 14 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor
> PCA Event : Proton/PCA Event Currently In progress began 1405UT 14 July.
>             PCA event observed in association with proton event.
> 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
>                     Latitude Band
> Date        Low            Middle         High
> 15 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Poor
> 16 Jul      Fair           Fair-poor      Poor
> 17 Jul      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-fair
> COMMENT: High latitude HF propagation extremely poor after 14UT
> on 14 July due to polar cap absorption (PCA) event associated with
> protons from X5 flare. Extremely degraded and depressed MUFS
> expected over next few days mid to high latitudes due to aniticipated
> geomagnetic storm activity. Northern hemisphere MUFs are expected
> to have a stronger storm response than southern hemisphere MUFs
> due to seasonal affects.
> -----------------------------------------------------------
> 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
> Date   T index
> 14 Jul   141
>
> Observed Australian Regional MUFs
>    Equatorial PNG Region:
>       Near to 15% depressed during local day.
>       Enhanced by 20-50% 09-15UT at Vanimo.
>    Northern Australian Region:
>       Near predicted monthly values.
>       Depressed 15-20% local day at Darwin.
>    Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
>       Near predicted monthly values.
>       Spread F local night hours.
>    Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
>       Enhanced by 15% 00-14UT. Complete absorption
>       observed after this time on Antarctic ionograms.
>
> Predicted Monthly T index for July: 135
>
> 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
> Date   T index  MUFs
> 15 Jul   130    near predicted monthly values
> 16 Jul    90    initially near normal then 20 to 30% below
>                 predicted monthly values
> 17 Jul    80    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
> COMMENT: Extremely degraded HF conditions are expected on 16-17 July in
> association with expected  intense geomagnetic storm. Local night HF comms
> on 16 July is expected to be particularly poor.
>
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Certainly this is an excellent forecast which will  c o m e  t r u e!

                            Kindest regards, truly yours Wolfram