[Ips-aurora-alert] Aurora Outlook [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc at ips.gov.au]

SUBJ: SWS AURORA OUTLOOK
ISSUED AT 1204 UT ON 23 May 2021 by Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

There have been two weak M-class flares and several C-class flares
during the last 36 hours (UT day 22-23 May), all from active region
2824. AR 2824 is currently located near the solar central meridian.
These events have so far generated four CMEs. Our model runs indicate
these CMEs will impact Earth on UT day 25 May at around 11 UT +/- 12
hours. The solar wind speed is expected to enhance to moderate to high
levels through UT days 25-26 May. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
be between minor to moderate storms (G1-G2). There is also a small
chance of strong and severe storms (G3-G4). Auroras may be visible on
the local night of 25 May from Tasmania, the coastline of Victoria and
Southwest Coast of Western Australia. There is a chance aurora may
also be visible on the local night of 26 May. Warnings and/or alerts
will follow if a geoeffective CME is observed and/or significant
geomagnetic activity actually occurs.


Australian Space Forecast Centre
Space Weather Services
Bureau of Meteorology

P: +61 2 9213 8010
E: asfc at bom.gov.au