[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (22 March 24) issued 0122 UT on 22 Mar 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 22 MARCH 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (15 MARCH - 21 MARCH)
Date     15    16    17    18    19    20    21
10cm    129   144   151   177   169   176   197
AFr       8     3     2     5     7     3  ( 19)
Aaus      3     1     1     3     6     2  ( 14)
T       115   117   122   131   137   133   138

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

15 Mar 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Mar 
Solar:        R1, with an M3.5 at 1635UT, and an M1.1 at 
              2156UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

17 Mar 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

18 Mar 
Solar:        R2, with an M2.7 at 0332UT, an M1.0 at 0415UT, 
              and an M6.7 at 1919UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

19 Mar 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 0229UT, and an M2.1 at 
              2327UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Mar 
Solar:        R2, with an M2.1 at 2327UT, an M7.4 at 0736UT, 
              and an M2.0 at 2255UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

21 Mar 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.0 at 2255UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 21 Mar, a weak (16nT) impulse 
was observed at 0250UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (22 MARCH - 28 MARCH)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over the week
of 22-28 Mar.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for the majority of the
week. G1 conditions are possible on 22-Mar due to ongoing CME
effects and on 24-26 Mar due to an equatorial coronal hole
rotating towards a geoeffective location.

Frequencies:  
MUFs near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for most of
the week.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au