[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (19 April 24) issued 0204 UT on 19 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 19 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (12 APRIL - 18 APRIL)
Date     12    13    14    15    16    17    18
10cm    152   161   178   192   199   217   227
AFr       6     6     5     7    17     8  (  5)
Aaus      3     2     3     5    15     4  (  2)
T       125   116   118   119   143   127   133

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

12 Apr 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Apr 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.4 at 0502UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Apr 
Solar:        R1, with an M4.3 at 0232UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Apr 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.7 at 0118UT, an M1.0 at 0732UT, 
              an M2.3 at 0842UT, an M1.2 at 0932UT, an M1.1 at 
              1358UT, an M2.2 at 1417UT, and an M4.0 at 1932UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

16 Apr 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 1803UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Briefly depressed 10-15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

17 Apr 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 1803UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

18 Apr 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.6 at 2208UT, an M2.2 at 0248UT, 
              an M1.3 at 0739UT, and an M1.6 at 2001UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 85% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (19 APRIL - 25 APRIL)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level with a chance
of R2 over the week of 19-25 Apr. The main driver for this is
a collection of sunspot regions on the solar disk, centered around
S13E14, which are developing rapidly, magnetically complex and 
have a history of producing R1 level flare activity.

Geomagnetic:  
Mostly G0 geomagnetic activity is expected over the week with a 
chance of G1 level activity on 20-Apr due to a possible glancing 
impact from a CME first observed on 16-Apr. G1 level activity is
also possible on 22-Apr due to high speed wind stream effects from
a small coronal hole currently rotating into a geoeffective 
location.


Frequencies:  
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced over the week of 19-25 Apr. There
is a chance of mildly depressed conditions on 20-23 Apr in the 
southern Australian region due to possible geomagnetic activity.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au