[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (20 October 23) issued 0055 UT on 20 Oct 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 20 OCTOBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (13 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER)
Date     13    14    15    16    17    18    19
10cm    149   148   145   144   137   135   129
AFr      11     6     2     3     2     8  ( 10)
Aaus     13     6     1     2     3     9  (  6)
T       144   124   134   149   147   144   132

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

13 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

15 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

16 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30-35% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

17 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night and after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

18 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

19 Oct 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (20 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER)
Solar: 
R0, with a slight chance of R1

Geomagnetic:  
G0, with a chance of G1 on 20-21 Oct due to several possible
CME impacts. G0 on all other days.

Frequencies:  
Slight chance of high latitude depressions on 20-21 Oct if 
geomagnetic activity occurs. 
MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% 
enhanced over the week.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au