[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (24 March 23) issued 0058 UT on 24 Mar 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 24 MARCH 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (17 MARCH - 23 MARCH)
Date     17    18    19    20    21    22    23
10cm    134   140   143   156   152   159   151
AFr       7     6     8    10     8    14  ( 23)
Aaus      4     7     6     9     4    10  ( 30)
T       137   133   146   144   136   143   141

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

17 Mar 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.0 at 1507UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 55% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-30%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Mar 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-70%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-30% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Mar 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35-80%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-45%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-40%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

20 Mar 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.2 at 0149UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-65%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-65% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Mar 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-65% 
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-35% 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Mar 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-45%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25-60%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day. 
      Mildly elevated absorption observed at times.

23 Mar 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G2
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-85% 
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40-55% 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35% 
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment:Unexpected G1-G2 geomagnetic activity was observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 23-Mar possibly due to a 
glancing blow from a recent filament eruption and possible 
coronal hole wind stream entry effects. G1-G2 conditions are
now expected for the first half of 24 Mar. With the current 
sustained southward IMF conditions there is a chance for 
the regional magnetic field to reach G3 early in the UT 
day on 24-Mar. The regional ionosphere has responded to
the geomagnetic activity with depressed frequencies of 
support observed after local dawn this morning for the 
southern Australian region.

 
2. FORECAST (24 MARCH - 30 MARCH)
Solar: 
R0-R1

Geomagnetic:  
G2, with the chance of an isolated G3 period for first 
half of the UT day 24-Mar. G0-G1 25-27 Mar. G0 on other
days.

Frequencies: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) for southern
Australian region are expected to be depressed 20-30% on
24-Mar. Degraded HF conditions during local night hours and 
further frequency depressions after local dawn on 25-Mar are
possible for the southern Australian region. Northern 
Australian region MUFs are expected to remain near to 20%
enhanced.


MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au