[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (21 July 23) issued 0129 UT on 21 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 21 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (14 JULY - 20 JULY)
Date     14    15    16    17    18    19    20
10cm    181   179   184   180   219   189   184
AFr      17     9    13    19    16     7  ( 10)
Aaus      8     5     3    16     8     2  (  5)
T       110   117   117   118   113   105   105

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

14 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0936UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 14 Jul, a weak (12nT) impulse 
was observed at 1611UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

15 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.9 at 0741UT, an M1.0 at 0953UT, 
              and an M2.2 at 1010UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

16 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.0 at 0826UT, an M1.7 at 1508UT, 
              and an M4.0 at 1748UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 16 Jul, a weak (8nT) impulse 
was observed at 1922UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Jul 
Solar:        R2, with an M2.7 at 2255UT, and an M5.0 at 2334UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

18 Jul 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.7 at 0007UT, an M1.5 at 0657UT,
              an M1.3 at 1948UT, and an M2.1 at 2027UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

19 Jul 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 1057UT, and an M3.8 at 
              1725UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

20 Jul 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
In the BOM magnetometer data for 20 Jul, a weak (11nT) impulse 
was observed at 1646UT.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (21 JULY - 27 JULY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level this week, with
a chance of isolated R2 flares. 

Geomagnetic:  
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 21-Jul, with a slight
chance of G2 due to the arrival of a CME first observed on 18-Jul.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected for the remainder of the
week. 

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values this week. 
Shortwave fadeouts are possible on daylight circuits. 

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au