[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (15 December 23) issued 0108 UT on 15 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 15 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (08 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER)
Date     08    09    10    11    12    13    14
10cm    133   128   127   126   126   135   155
AFr       4     2     4     3     8     7  ( 15)
Aaus      3     1     2     1     5     7  (  7)
T       103   100   112   114   113   110   102

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

08 Dec 
Solar:        R2, with an M5.4 at 2307UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Dec 
Solar:        R1 with an M1.5 at 0955UT, and an M1.0 at 1319UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.3 at 0353UT, and an M1.4 at 
              2243UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.4 at 2243UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

14 Dec 
Solar:        R3 with an M5.8 at 0744UT, an M2.3 at 1348UT, 
              and an X2.8 at 1702UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Comment: The solar region that produced the R3 flare on 
14-Dec remains complex and is growing. The R2 (M5) and R3 (X2) 
flares were associated with CMEs which due to the western longitude 
of the solar region of origin were predominately west directed,
with component impacts expected on to arrive on 17-Dec.
 
2. FORECAST (15 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER)
Solar: 
R1-R2, chance R3 for the first half of the week due to 
an active solar region in the northwest solar quadrant.
After 15-Dec several previously R1 producing solar regions are due
for possible return to the eastern solar limb.

Geomagnetic:  
G0-G1 conditions possible 16-Dec and on 19-Dec. G1, with the
chance G2 periods possible on 17 Dec.  G0 on other days.

Frequencies:  
MUFs briefly depressed after local dawn on 16-Dec and 19-Dec.
Southern Australian region MUFS expected to be depressed 20% 
late in the UT day 17 Dec and early in the UT day 18-Dec.
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au