[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 September 22) issued 0119 UT on 16 Sep 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 SEPTEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (09 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm    126   136   152   150   154   144   140
AFr      14    10     9     9     5    10  (  7)
Aaus      8    10     7     5     2     6  (  3)
T        71    63    72    85    83    86    91

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-45%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

12 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.8 at 2344UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

13 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.8 at 2344UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

14 Sep 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.1 at 1019UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-35%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

15 Sep 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40%-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (16 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1 activity general expected during the week. A previously flare active solar
region 
is due back to the south-east solar limb on 19 Sep. However, for solar cycle 25
it seems 
we have yet to see a solar region return to the eastern solar limb that has
continued 
significant flare activity for more than one solar rotation. The recent solar
region AR3088 
is perhaps the closest so far, with farside activity evident, but rotated back
onto the disk 
flare quiet on 12 Sep.

Geomagnetic: G0 for  
Isolated G1 periods possible on 16-17 Sep, due to a coronal hole high speed wind
stream. 
G0 conditions expected on other days.

Frequencies: 
MUF are expected to be enhanced 15% during local daylight hours early in the
week, with degraded 
HF conditions possible for southern Australian region HF communications during
local night hours 
for 16-17 Sep. For southern region Australia brief depressions after local dawn
are possible 17-18 Sep. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values on other days of the week.
Increased chance of short 
wave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits after 19 Sep.


For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au