[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (30 December 22) issued 0119 UT on 30 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 30 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (23 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER)
Date     23    24    25    26    27    28    29
10cm    128   133    NA    NA    NA   160   163
AFr      19    15     8    19    16     4  (  8)
Aaus     11    15     6    17    16     4  (  7)
T        76    57    59    70   128    57    94

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

23 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

25 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

26 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G1
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

27 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M2.1 at 0054UT, an M1.1 at 0815UT, 
              and an M1.2 at 1626UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-50%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

28 Dec 
Solar:        R0
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

29 Dec 
Solar:        R1, with an M1.2 at 0727UT, and an M2.4 at 
              1833UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (30 DECEMBER - 05 JANUARY)
Solar: 
Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels, due to
an active region due to rotate onto the disk in the northeast
quadrant as well as the expected return of AR3165 which produced
R1-R2 flaring activity. 

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected, with a chance of G1
over 3-5 Jan due to a returning equatorial coronal hole.

Frequencies:  
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values. Mild 
degradations are possible due to persistent sporadic E and
potential increased geomagnetic activity over 3-5 Jan.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au