[Ips-wsgr] ASWFC Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (09 December 22) issued 0107 UT on 09 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

[rwc]

SUBJ: ASWFC WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 09 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx

1. SUMMARY (02 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER)
Date     02    03    04    05    06    07    08
10cm    124   134   144   150   144   148   143
AFr      11     7    10     7     2     9  ( 10)
Aaus     11     7     9     5     2    10  (  7)
T        47    76    86    90    77   101    73

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

02 Dec 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25-50%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

03 Dec 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1.3 at 1741UT
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Dec 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Dec 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Dec 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Dec 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15-20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 20% to enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Dec 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  G0
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (09 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER)
Solar: 
R0-R1 conditions are expected over the period 9-15 Dec
due to a large and complex sunspot region currently on
the solar disk and the appearance of active sunspot 
regions beyond the eastern limb which are expected to
appear on the solar disk from 12-Dec.

Geomagnetic:  
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 9-15 Dec
with a chance of G1 over 9-10 Dec due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. There is a possibility
of conditions higher than G0 later in the week due to
the appearance of active sunspot regions beyond the 
eastern limb which are expected to appear on the solar 
disk from 12-Dec and which have recently produced CMEs.

Frequencies:  
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be near 
predicted monthly values over 9-15 Dec with a chance of 
mild depressions over 9-10 Dec due to ongoing coronal 
hole high speed wind stream effects. Sporadic E is likely 
across the Australian region during local night hours 
over 9-10 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts on daylight 
HF circuits are possible as is sporadic E, impacting 
lower HF frequencies.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
https://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au