[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (13 May 16) issued 0114 UT on 13 May 2016 [SEC=UNCLASSIFIED]

[rwc]

SUBJ: SWS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 13 MAY 2016, BY Space Weather Services,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (06 MAY - 12 MAY)
Date     06    07    08    09    10    11    12
10cm     90    88    84    89    89    94    92
AFr      12     9    32    21    15     6  (  5)
Aaus     14     4    38    15    12     2  (  2)
T        35    27    44    16     9    15    22

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

06 May 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active, isolated minor storm periods.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 May 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 May 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm with some Major Storm 
              periods
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

09 May 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 50% during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

10 May 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled with isolated periods of Active 
              conditions.
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

11 May 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

12 May 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet
Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (13 MAY - 19 MAY)
Solar: 
Very Low to Low

Geomagnetic:  
Quiet to unsettled conditions.

Mostly Quiet conditions for UT days 13-15 May. However, at the
end of the UT day of 15 May and on 16 May expect activity will 
increase to Unsettled with isolated periods of Active levels for
Australian region and possible isolated periods of Minor Storm
levels at higher latitudes due to a coronal hole extending from
the north pole to the equatorial region. For UT days 17-19 May
expect a gradual return to mostly Quiet conditions.

Frequencies: 
MUFs near predicted monthly values for UT days 13-19 May with
possible periods of minor to mild depressions in the Australian
and Antarctic regions.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Glossary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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