[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 October 09)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 OCTOBER 2009, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (16 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm     70    71    70    71    71    71    72
AFr       3     0     0     1     0     1    (8)
Aaus      4     3     4     4     2     3   (12)
T       -13   -11     6    -6    -1     2    16

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian region.
Frequencies:  Australian ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Oct 
Solar:        Very Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Oct 
Solar:        Very Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

18 Oct 
Solar:        Very Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

19 Oct 
Solar:        Very Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

20 Oct 
Solar:        Very Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

21 Oct 
Solar:        Very Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Oct 
Solar:        Very Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (23 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER)
Solar: Very Low solar activity is expected for the forecast 
period, with no current significant active regions or 
returning regions.

Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled conditions with isolated 
Active periods for 23Oct-25Oct due to the sudden geomagnetic 
impulse from 17Oct faint partial full halo CME and recurrent 
coronal hole activity. Otherise mostly Quiet for the forecast
period.

Frequencies:  MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values with possible enhancements for low to mid latitudes 
23Oct-24Oct. Possible disturbed conditions for high latitudes
24Oct-27Oct due to increased geomagnetic activity. Isolated 
depressed periods for low latitudes from 26Oct-29Oct.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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