[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (28 April 06)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 28 APRIL 2006, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (21 APRIL - 27 APRIL)
Date     21    22    23    24    25    26    27
10cm     79    82    87    93    95   100   101
AFr       6    10     8     4     1     2 (  4)
Aaus      5     9     3     3     3     1 ( ??)
T        19    34    26    30    28    31    31

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

21 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

22 Apr 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled. Minor storm periods at high 
              latitudes. 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values

23 Apr 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 

Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values / variable enhancements to
15%

24 Apr 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values / Enhanced to 15% above
predicted monthly mean.

25 Apr 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
Near predicted monthly values / Enhanced to 20% above
predicted monthly values

26 Apr 
Solar:        moderate, with an   M1.3 at 1703UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
about 10% above predicted monthly values

27 Apr 
Solar:        high, with an   M7.9 at 1552UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
about 15% above predicted monthly values

 
2. FORECAST (28 APRIL - 04 MAY)
Solar: 
Moderate activity during the week due to the transit of 
active region 875 in particular, and possibly also AR876
and 877. AR875 has already produced M class flares and 
retains the potential to do so.

Frequencies:
MUFs generally above predicted monthly values by 10-25% 
due to extra ionising solar radiation from active regions 
875/876/877. Conditions may be depressed and MUFs reduced 
by ionospheric storms resulting solar Coronal Mass Ejections
(CMEs) from AR875 striking the geomagnetic field.

Geomagnetic:
Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 
Events that could make the field more active; 
a) solar Coronal Mass Ejections from AR875 - possible this week
b) significant coronal holes and associated high solar wind speeds 
- no indications of this at present. 
c) extended periods (>12 hours) of solar magnetic field (IMF) 
Bz component southward - possible 


For an explanation of terms in this report goto 
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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