[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (23 September 05)

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 23 SEPTEMBER 2005, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (16 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER)
Date     16    17    18    19    20    21    22
10cm    112   104   102    91    88    86    84
AFr      11    10     8     8     3     3 (  5)
Aaus     16    10     9     5     5     4 (  5)
T        13    36    46    43    39    38    36

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

16 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an   M4.4 at 0149UT , an   M1.4 at 1748UT , and an 
 M3.5 at 1936UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 30% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

17 Sep 
Solar:        high, with an   M9.8 at 0605UT 
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 25% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

18 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

19 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
      Spread F observed at Niue 09-11 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 40% enhanced.
      Blanketing sporadic E observed at Darwin 09-10 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
      Spread F observed at Mundaring 14-20 UT and Hobart
      12-20 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

20 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
      with depressions of 30% at Vanimo 13-19 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed
      at Darwin 13-17 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Spread F observed at
      Hobart 09-20 UT. Disturbance observed at Hobart and
      Christchurch around 00-02 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

21 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

22 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (23 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: 
Low

Geomagnetic:  
active on 28 Sep.
minor storm on 29 Sep.
quiet to unsettled on other days.

Frequencies:  
briefly depressed after local dawn on 28 Sep
depressed 15% on 29 Sep
MUFs near predicted monthly values on other days.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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