[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (07 January 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 07 JANUARY 2005, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (31 DECEMBER - 06 JANUARY)
Date     31    01    02    03    04    05    06
10cm     99    99   100    94    88    88    83
AFr       5    10    20    14    16    11 (  5)
Aaus      6    ??    26    16    16    13 (  4)
T        79    70    35    33    38    45    37

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

31 Dec 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1445UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Jan 
Solar:        high, with an X1.7 at 0031UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
A weak (20nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data at 1050UT on 01
Jan.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

02 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

03 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

04 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

05 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

06 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (07 JANUARY - 13 JANUARY)
Solar: Conditions are expected to range from Very Low to Low
levels with no major sunspots currently on disc or 
returning regions expected over this period.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Unsettled to Active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. No SWFs.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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