[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (09 December 05)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 09 DECEMBER 2005, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (02 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER)
Date     02    03    04    05    06    07    08
10cm    106   101    95    92    89    89    90
AFr      10     9     3     2     1     1 (  0)
Aaus     12    10     7     4     5     1 (  2)
T        12    28    19    19    23    20    29

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

02 Dec 
Solar:        high, with an   M6.5 at 0253UT , an   M7.8 at 1012UT , and an  
M2.0 at 2122UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to active 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

03 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local morning,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

04 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

05 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

06 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

 
2. FORECAST (09 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER)
Solar: Low activity levels are expected for the forecast period
with the possibility of moderate levels if new regions which are
currently rotating  onto the disc increase in activity. Recurrence
pattern doesnt indicate the return of any major active regions
though.

Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected. Currently
there is no major coronal hole development or large CME activity.

Frequencies: MUFs near predicted monthly values, with possible
isolated disturbed periods.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au/1/2/1.

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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