[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (24 September 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 24 SEPTEMBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (17 SEPTEMBER - 23 SEPTEMBER)
Date     17    18    19    20    21    22    23
10cm    105   103   105   101    95    91    90
AFr      15    16     4     8     6    12 (  8)
Aaus     12     7     5     8     7    15 (  9)
T        52    57    54    56    43    42    33

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

17 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night,
      Depressed 15-30% before local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

18 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.

19 Sep 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 1712UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

20 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
slightly above predicted monthly values

21 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
near predicted monthly values

22 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Some active to minor storm levels 06-15 UT following 
              the Sudden Impulse at 0634UT, otherwise quiet to 
              unsettled. 
              A weak (27nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer 
	      data at 0634UT on 22 Sep.
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by up to 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

23 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (24 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Low. A non-flaring region which showed some growth as
       it departed the solar disk on its last rotation is due back
       to the solar disk 25 Sep (S9).
Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet. 27 day recurrence patterns indicate
	      quiet conditions until 29 Sep.
Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. 

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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