[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (29 October 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 29 OCTOBER 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (22 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER)
Date     22    23    24    25    26    27    28
10cm    123   132   135   140   137   130   133
AFr       5     1     6     9     0     2 (  3)
Aaus      5     3     9    12     3     5 (  2)
T        70    79    78    60    64    78    86

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

22 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 0811UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

23 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

24 Oct 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1N at 2028UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.

25 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly enhanced during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

26 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
slightly above predicted monthly values

27 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

28 Oct 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (29 OCTOBER - 04 NOVEMBER)
Solar: Low to Moderate, a trend of increasing solar activity
       is possible. Two regions low level flare capable. Also, 
       based on GONG inferred far-side solar images, an possible 
       active region may rotate around the south-east limb mid week.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Unsettled to Active intervals possible
	30 to 31 October.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. SWFs possible.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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