[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (16 July 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 16 JULY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (09 JULY - 15 JULY)
Date     09    10    11    12    13    14    15
10cm     87    93   104   125   127   138   146
AFr       4     5    13    12    11     6 (  7)
Aaus      1     3    10     8     9     4 (  3)
T        33    36    47    54    56    57    64

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

09 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed 5-15% at times during local day
      to near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

10 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed 5-10% at times during local day otherwise
      mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,

11 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

12 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1 at 0808UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 5-15% at times to mostly near predicted
      monthly values.

13 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an M6.7 at 0017UT, an M5.4/1N at 0848UT, an M2 at
1208UT, an M1/1N at 1838UT, and an M6.2/1B at 1932UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

14 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an M6.2/1N at 0523UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near perdicted monthly values to enhanced upto 35%
      with periods of significant degradations. 

15 Jul 
Solar:        high, with an  X1/-- at 0141UT , and an  X1/-- at 1824UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 45% with periods of 
      significant degradations. 
 
2. FORECAST (16 JULY - 22 JULY)
Solar: Moderate to high

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Unsettled to Active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. SWFs probable early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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