[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (13 February 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 13 FEBRUARY 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (06 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY)
Date     06    07    08    09    10    11    12
10cm    107   111   116   118   117   114   112
AFr      13     5     2     3     5    12 ( 12)
Aaus     13     7     3     6     6    21 ( 23)
T        70    49    54    70    75    57    12

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

06 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

07 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

08 Feb 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/SF at 2051UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

09 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

10 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods of
      depressions and degradations.

12 Feb 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day 
      with periods of significant depressions and 
      degradations.
 
2. FORECAST (13 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY)
Solar: Very low to low

Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to active with possibility of minor 
storm on 13 and 14 February, Unsettled to active on 15 February, 
quiet to unsettled on 16 February, quiet on 17 and 18 February, 
unsettled on 19 February.

Frequencies:  depressed 10 to 15% on 13 and 14 February, 
depressed 05% to near monthly predicted values on 15 February,  
otherwise MUFs near normal. SWFs unlikely.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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