[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (27 August 04)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 27 AUGUST 2004, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (20 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST)
Date     20    21    22    23    24    25    26
10cm    121   120   115   110   105   100    98
AFr       9    14     8    10     3     3 (  4)
Aaus     11     9    12     4     3     3 (  3)
T        66    60    47    55    53    50    56

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

20 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 30% with periods of significant
      degradations and depressions. 


21 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of significant depressions and
      degradations. 


22 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% with periods of significant
      depressions and degradations. 


23 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% with periods of significant 
      depressions and degradations.


24 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by upto 35% with periods of depressions
      and degradations. 


25 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.


26 Aug 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (27 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Low solar activity is expected for the next 7 days. Current
sunspot regions 663 and 664 have shown no change in sunspot size or
magnetic complexity and only hold the potential for C-class flare
activity. No recurring regions are expected over the time period. 

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet with Quiet to Unsettled intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. No SWFs.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

For an explanation of some of the terms in this report, goto
http://www.ips.gov.au, and follow links to Educational->
Gloassary on Solar Terrestrial Terms.


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