[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (26 September 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 26 SEPTEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (19 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER)
Date     19    20    21    22    23    24    25
10cm    111   112   120   123   125   134   133
AFr      26    34    19    17    10    27 ( 25)
Aaus     29    26    15    13    15    23 ( 23)
T        35    52    51    64    67    85    74

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

19 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with  periods of 
      depressions.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed upto
      30% with periods of significant degradations. 


20 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods
      of significant degradations.


21 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to active with isolated minor storm 
              periods at high latitudes. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with periods
      of significant degradations.


22 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to active. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values  with periods
      of significant degradations over the UT day.


23 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to active. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values  with periods of
      significant degradations over the UT day.


24 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Depressed up to 15% at times after local dawn.


25 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values.


 
2. FORECAST (26 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER)
Solar: Low to moderate.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

Frequencies:  Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced with
	      depressions of 15% possible at times for southern regions.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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