[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (05 September 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 05 SEPTEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (29 AUGUST - 04 SEPTEMBER)
Date     29    30    31    01    02    03    04
10cm    116   114   110   108   106   111   112
AFr      12    12     5    11    12    14 ( 18)
Aaus     14    10     7    14    12    13 ( 18)
T        72    63    82    70    82    85    83

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

29 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 10-20% during UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Extended periods of disturbance during local night.

30 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values with extended periods of
      disturbance during local night. 

31 Aug 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly enhanced/near predicted monthly values.
      Extended periods of night-time spread-F.

01 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% during local day. 
      Extended periods of disturbance during local night.

02 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
       Near predicted monthly values with periods 
       of disturbance local night hours.

03 Sep 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

04 Sep 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Mild coronal hole high speed wind stream
induced activity observed late in week.
 
2. FORECAST (05 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER)
Solar: Predomiately low, chance for isolated low level M class
flares.

Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to active 05 Sep, then declining to 
quiet to unsettled until 08 Sep, afterwhich active conditions
expected due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream.

Frequencies:  Mostly near to 15% above predicted monthly values.
Mild degradation in HF communications quality local night
hours 05 Sep and 8-10 Sep.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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