[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (31 October 03)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 31 12:02:08 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 31 OCTOBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (24 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER)
Date 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
10cm 191 222 298 257 274 279 271
AFr 28 10 5 13 15 199 (115)
Aaus 42 23 11 10 17 155 ( 78)
T 79 28 76 70 88 76 -16
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies: Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
24 Oct
Solar: high, with an M7.6/1N at 0254UT, an M4/1F at 0510UT,
an M1 at 1856UT, and an M1/1N at 2140UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Severe Storm Levels
A moderate (74nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1525UT on 24 Oct.
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values 00-06UT.
Depressed 15-20% later in UT day, spread F
and absorption observed.
25 Oct
Solar: moderate, with an M1/2N at 0446UT, an M1/SF at 0553UT,
an M1/SF at 1035UT, and an M1/1N at 2140UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Minor Storm
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Increased absorption nad spread F observed early UT day.
Blanketing sporadic E observed second half UT day.
26 Oct
Solar: high, with an X1.2/3B at 0654UT, an X1.2/1N at 1819UT,
and an M7.6/2N at 2140UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
A weak (11nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data at
1909UT on 26 Oct.
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn.
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values,
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed,
later in UT day.
27 Oct
Solar: high, with an M1/SF at 0439UT, an X1.2/3B at 0654UT,
an M2/2F at 0833UT, an M5.0/SF at 0927UT, an M6.7/SF at 1243UT, and
an M1/SN at 2151UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Absorption until 15UT then, near predicted monthly
values over the UT day. Some spread F.
28 Oct
Solar: high, with an X17.2/4B at 1110UT
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
29 Oct
Solar: high, with an M1/1F at 0151UT, an M3/SN at 0511UT,
and an X10.0/2B at 2049UT
Geomagnetic: Active to Severe Storm Levels
A strong (139nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 0611UT on 29 Oct.
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
30 Oct
Solar: high
Geomagnetic: Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 55% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
2. FORECAST (31 OCTOBER - 06 NOVEMBER)
Solar: High in the first half of the period. High to moderate in the
second half of the period.
Geomagnetic: Major to severe storm in the the beginning of the
period. Geomagnetic activity expected to decline thereafter.
Frequencies: depressed 25-40% on 31-Oct, depressed 10 to 20% on 01-Nov,
depressed 5 to 15% after local dawn on 03 November, otherwise
MUFs near normal. SWFs probable early in week.
PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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