[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (17 October 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 17 OCTOBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (10 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER)
Date     10    11    12    13    14    15    16
10cm    112   106    98    94    92    96    95
AFr       4     2     3    12    33    22 ( 25)
Aaus      2     0     4    11    29    26 ( 18)
T        84    75    74    70    71    24    56

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

10 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

11 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

12 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

13 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

14 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values, depressed 15-20%
      late in UT day. Spread F observed.

15 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 20% 03-06UT, at Port Moresby.
      Vanimo MUFs remained near predicted monthly values.
      Near predicted monthly values after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Variable conditions. MUFs ar Darwin depressed
      40% 03-06 UT and 20% until 10 UT.
      Townsville enhanced 30% 01-03UT, depressed 20%
      04-05UT. Learmonth enhanced 30% 06-07UT, depressed
      30% 03-05UT and 09-12 UT.
      15% depressed to near normal after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

16 Oct 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15% early in local day.
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


COMMENT: Coronal hole induced high speed wind stream 
induced geomagnetic activity observed later in week.
Strong ionospheric depression observed 15 Oct in 
association with geomagnetic activity, in southern
Aus/NZ region. Northern Aus region MUFs were variable,
with a 30% depression observed 03-06UT on this day.
 
2. FORECAST (17 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER)
Solar: Low, outside chance for isolated low level 
M class activity.

Geomagnetic:  Active 17-19 October (with a declining
trend). Unsettled to active 21-22 Oct. 
Quiet to unsettled on other days.

Frequencies:  depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 
17-19 Oct,  then mostly near predicted montlhy values.

COMMENT: There is a chance for an increase in solar
activity this week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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