[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (03 October 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 03 OCTOBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (26 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER)
Date     26    27    28    29    30    01    02
10cm    131   130   137   135   133   137   125
AFr      11    13     2     4     3     7 (  8)
Aaus     15     4     3     3     6     5 (  7)
T        76    87    94    90    99    98    90

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

26 Sep 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10-20% at times otherwise near
      predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% at times otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values.


27 Sep 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


28 Sep 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Slightly enhanced to mostly near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


29 Sep 
Solar:        Very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% early in the UT day.
      No data after 10 UT.


30 Sep 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


01 Oct 
Solar:        Moderate, with an M1/1F at 0451UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 10-20% over the UT day.


02 Oct 
Solar:        Low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


 
2. FORECAST (03 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER)
Solar: Low

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with active intervals possible.

Frequencies:  Depressed 15% briefly after local dawn on 06-08 Oct. 
              Otherwise MUFs near normal. No SWFs.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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