[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (30 May 03)

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 30 11:03:38 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 30 MAY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (23 MAY - 29 MAY)
Date     23    24    25    26    27    28    29
10cm    118   117   121   125   129   130   138
AFr      18    14    14    13    18    22 ( 50)
Aaus     16    17    11    13    19    24 ( 61)
T        84    75    72    82    78    83    73

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

23 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced greater than 25%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

24 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to depressed 10-20%.

25 May 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to
      depressed 15-30% at times.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

26 May 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0550UT, and an M1 at 1637UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values
      to depressed 10-20% at times.

27 May 
Solar:        high, with an M1/1F at 0306UT, an M1/1F at 0626UT, 
	      and an X1.3 at 2307UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

28 May 
Solar:        high, with an X3.6 at 0027UT, and an X1.3/2B at 2307UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

29 May 
Solar:        high, with an X1.1/2B at 0105UT , an M2.7/1N 
at 1937UT , and an M1.5/1F at 0217UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night,
     Enhanced by 70% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 35% during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Darwin MUfs were enhanced over 100% between 07 and 11 UT.
     Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

COMMENT:Very strong disturbance began second half of UT day 29 May
due to arrival of two mass ejections. Geomagnetic storm onset
around 1830UT. Local ionosphere depressed after local dawn. 
An energetic solar proton event is also in progress impacting 
transpolar HF circuits. Southern region Aus/NZ ionosphere depressed 
up to 30% after local dawn 30 May. Northern Aus region MUFs near 
predicted monthly values.
 
2. FORECAST (30 MAY - 05 JUNE)

Solar: Moderate to high first half of week, then declining activity.
High activity forecast first half of week due to flare/CME producing
solar region in south-west quadrant of the solar disk. Region will
rotate off disk in 3-4 days time.

Geomagnetic:  Minor storm first half of UT day 30 May, then declining.
Another CME impact expected 31 May, with major storm levels expected.
A weaker CME is also expected 01/02 Jun. Also, a large coronal hole
is expected to induce active conditions for an extended period after
02 Jun.

Frequencies:  depressed 15-30% first half of UT day 30-May, initially 
near normal on 31-May then 15-30% depressed late 31 May/early 01 Jun. 
Mildy depressed conditions also expected after 02 Jun. Depressions 
expected to be mostly confined to south Aus/NZ (below 20 degrees south).

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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