[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (11 July 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 11 JULY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (04 JULY - 10 JULY)
Date     04    05    06    07    08    09    10
10cm    140   142   130   133   131   126   123
AFr      15    14    10     9     3     3 (  6)
Aaus     15    14     9    12     2     3 (  6)
T        94    90    74    72    71    71    75

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

04 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% early in the UT day.


05 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


06 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 0032UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% early in the UT day.


07 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


08 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15-30% over the UT day.


09 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/SF at 2238UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


10 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M3.6 at 1412UT
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 

Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


 
2. FORECAST (11 JULY - 17 JULY)
Solar: Low to moderate

Geomagnetic:  Possible active to minor storm intervals early in
the forecast period, otherwise mostly quiet to unsettled conditions.   

Frequencies:  Possible slight to mild depressions at times early
in the forecast period,  otherwise MUFs near normal.
SWFs possible early in week.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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