[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (03 January 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 03 JANUARY 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (27 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY)
Date     27    28    29    30    31    01    02
10cm    117   117   115   114   115   115   118
AFr      22    12     8     9     7     9 (  8)
Aaus     29    14    10     9     7     7 (  7)
T       134   112   109    93    92   117   126

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

27 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed.

28 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over the UT day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values.

29 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly quiet to unsettled with some active periods 
              recorded at high latitudes. 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 15% after local dawn with
      periods of enhancements during the second half
      of the day. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

30 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with
      short periods of depressions and degradations.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with short periods of depressions and degradations.

31 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

01 Jan 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

02 Jan 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20-45% during local day,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


COMMENT:Disturbance observed 27-28 Dec due to coronal hole.
 
2. FORECAST (03 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY)
Solar: Low
Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to Unsettled with Active intervals 
possible 03-04 Jan.
Frequencies:  Near predicted monthly values. No SWFs.

PEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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