[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (26 December 03)

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 26 11:06:37 EST 2003


SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 26 DECEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (19 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER)
Date     19    20    21    22    23    24    25
10cm    123   130   133   138   142   139   139
AFr       1     9    18    18     6     6 (  6)
Aaus      3    16    16    15     6     9 (  6)
T        91    74    20    80    85   120   128

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

19 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

20 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day/night,
      Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with increasing periods of disturbance.

21 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Slightly below predicted values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Slightly below predicted values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted monthly values over the UT day.

22 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night and after 
      local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly below predicted  monthly values over 
      the UT day.

23 Dec 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

24 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

25 Dec 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

2. FORECAST (26 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY)
Solar: Low, chance for isolated low level M class flare.

Geomagnetic:  Mostly Quiet to unsettled. However, active to minor 
	      storm conditions probable 31 Dec/01 Jan due
	      to anticpated coronal hole wind stream entry.

Frequencies:  Near to 15% above monthly predicted values. No SWFs.
              Degraded conditions possible 01 Jan mid to high 
	      latitudes only.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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