[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (26 December 03)
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 26 11:06:37 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED ON 26 DECEMBER 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
1. SUMMARY (19 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER)
Date 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
10cm 123 130 133 138 142 139 139
AFr 1 9 18 18 6 6 ( 6)
Aaus 3 16 16 15 6 9 ( 6)
T 91 74 20 80 85 120 128
Solar: Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic: Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies: Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies
19 Dec
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Quiet
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
20 Dec
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day/night,
Depressed by 10% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with increasing periods of disturbance.
21 Dec
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Unsettled to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Slightly below predicted values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Slightly below predicted values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values over the UT day.
22 Dec
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Active
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night and after
local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night and after
local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Slightly below predicted monthly values over
the UT day.
23 Dec
Solar: very low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20-25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
24 Dec
Solar: low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
25 Dec
Solar: low
Geomagnetic: Quiet to Unsettled
Frequencies:
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
2. FORECAST (26 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY)
Solar: Low, chance for isolated low level M class flare.
Geomagnetic: Mostly Quiet to unsettled. However, active to minor
storm conditions probable 31 Dec/01 Jan due
to anticpated coronal hole wind stream entry.
Frequencies: Near to 15% above monthly predicted values. No SWFs.
Degraded conditions possible 01 Jan mid to high
latitudes only.
PLEASE NOTE:
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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