[Ips-wsgr] IPS Weekly Solar and Geophysical Report (01 August 03)

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS WEEKLY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT 
ISSUED ON 01 AUGUST 2003, BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES,
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE

1. SUMMARY (25 JULY - 31 JULY)
Date     25    26    27    28    29    30    31
10cm    112   103   102   103   100    99   102
AFr       8    20    16    15    24    24  ( 24)
Aaus      6    17    16    12    28    26  ( 22)
T        86    74    70    60    63    53    63

Solar:        Solar flare activity
Geomagnetic:  Geomagnetic activity observed for Australian Region.
Frequencies:  Australian Ionospheric F2 critical frequencies

25 Jul 
Solar:        low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated overnight
      depressions.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.

26 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Isolated depressions of 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. 

27 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Active 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Periods of depressions during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.

28 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Unsettled 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 10-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values,
      Mild depressions after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of localised disturbance.

29 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M1/1F at 0139UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 10-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Mild depressions after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Extended periods of disturbance.

30 Jul 
Solar:        moderate, with an M2/1B at 0410UT
Geomagnetic:  Unsettled to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

31 Jul 
Solar:        very low
Geomagnetic:  Quiet to Minor Storm 
Frequencies:  
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      10-15% depressions observed Christchurch and Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

COMMENT: Coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity
observed second half of week.

 
2. FORECAST (01 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST)
Solar: Low to Moderate. 
       A possibly active solar region may be rotating around 
       the south-east solar limb. Solar wind speed is currently 
       fast due to a coronal hole. Speed expected to start to
       slowly decline around 02 August.

Geomagnetic:  Active, with chance of minor storm periods
	      early in week, then declining to quiet. A mild increase
	      in activity may be experienced starting around 07 Aug.

Frequencies:  Mildy depressed after local dawn on 01-Aug, then
	      improving (southern Aus region only). Northern Aus region
	      MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly values.
	      Increasing chance for isolated shortwave fadeouts.

PLEASE NOTE: 
At this time of the solar cycle, space weather conditions
are frequently determined by short timescale events, not
able to be forecasted a week in advance.

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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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